In November, the forecasts arrive.
Rates, prices, sales volume. Next year in a set of numbers, delivered with confidence.
This year, they disagree. Forecasters sit about a full point apart on where mortgage rates will land in 2027. Same data, same economy, different answers.
When the experts agree, a forecast feels like a fact. When they don’t, you see it for what it is: an educated guess.
That’s always been true. The disagreement just makes it visible.
Plans versus predictions
A prediction tries to name one outcome. A plan holds up across several.
Most people treat a forecast as a plan. They wait for the number to come in, then act. But the forecast is a guess, and waiting on it means making someone else’s guess the basis of your decision.
The better question isn’t what rates will do. It’s whether the decision still works if rates do something different.
Three questions worth asking
If you’re thinking about a move in 2027, start here.
What do I need this decision to do? A home for the next ten years is a different decision than a seasonal base or a long-term asset.
What range can I live with? If rates stay high, is it still a good decision? If they fall and I refinance, does that change what I’d do?
What would make me wait, and is that a real reason or a comfortable one?
The last question matters most. Sometimes waiting is the right call. Sometimes it’s just easier than deciding.
Different markets, same principle
Naples and Baltimore buyers face different conditions. Different price points, different seasons, different reasons for buying.
The principle holds in both. Decide what the home is for. Then test the decision against a few outcomes instead of one.
What I’d tell a client
Don’t wait for the forecast to settle. It won’t.
Get clear on what you want, know what you can afford, and decide from there. The people who feel good about their decisions five years later are rarely the ones who guessed the market right. They’re the ones who knew why they were buying.
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